ABSTRACT
Objective To establish a mathematical prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by applying an artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression analysis method. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2015 to collect epidemiological data of COPD of 2 400 residents from Hubei Province. Subjects were randomized into training group and test group at a ratio of 7:3. The prediction models of COPD were established using ANN and logistic multiple regression. The predictive performance of the two models was compared. Results Information from a total of 1 569 subjects was valid and analyzed, including 1,099 cases in the training group and 470 cases in the test group. The area under curve (AUC) of ANN for training group and test group was 0.80 and 0.78, respectively. The AUC of logistic regression for training group and test group was 0.75 and 0.74, respectively. Conclusion It is feasible to apply ANN and logistic regression models to predict COPD, which can provide scientific evidence for COPD prevention and treatment.